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The January Rollercoaster

Global crypto market cap, source: Coinbase

There are 3 main triggers that cause the January dip:

This January was worse, much worse. A series of critical news events turned investor sentiment and had a series of knock-on effects:

This series of bad news events caused prices to fall which had a knock-on impact on investors that invested on credit — especially those that bought at the peak of the hype in November and December last year, on credit they could not afford. Banking on the price increasing but when it didn’t materialise, they ended up panic selling to meet credit card payments.

Moreover, we’ve seen a significant increase in the number of new professional investors including hedge funds, enter the industry in recent months. They tend to use more complex financial tools such as stop-loss triggers and futures. And use them they did.

Many of these stop loss triggers were likely priced at BTC support level. When many traders place stop-loss orders at the same price as was was likely the case here, when the price drops below that level, there is a vast amount of unfulfilled sell orders automatically executed on exchanges. This lead to widespread investor panic.

These newly implemented bitcoin futures also likely contributed to the downward pressure as a result of the first of these futures contracts expiring earlier this week.

In the face of all this, the market has since recovered somewhat and cryptocurrency has shown it’s resilience once again. Most institutional investors have yet to make any crypto investments. And this extensive market drop may have been just what they were waiting for before buying-in, which could explain this recent rebound.

Was this rollercoaster a market correction? market manipulation? or just good ol’ January blues? The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle. Either way, expect more to follow, it’s not over yet.

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